MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models: Visualising ecological complexity in marine and coastal ecosystems

These tools aim to help managers in the marine and coastal ecosystems MaCoBioS studied understand and visualise complexity to inform where management might be desired

Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly complex environments, composed of many interacting components. They provide ecosystem services such as food, coastal protection, and recreation. Human activities impact these components in various ways and often act in concert both with each other and climate change. Understanding these complex social-ecological systems is challenging, yet it is key for managers choosing at what point they should respond to changes in a system through local management and where in the system they should intervene.

To help simplify this complexity, MaCoBioS constructed a series of conceptual models using fuzzy cognitive mapping and expert knowledge to describe and visualise how the ecosystems we studied function, the connections between the components of these ecosystems, the interactions between human activities and climate change, and inform where in the system management might be desired. 

We developed MaCoBioS’  Conceptual Models for the following:

  • coral reefs in the Lesser Antilles (Martinique);
  • kelp forests in Northern Europe (Norway);
  • maërl beds in the Western Mediterranean (Menorca Channel, Spain);
  • mangrove forests in the Lesser Antilles (Martinique/Bonaire);
  • salt marshes in Northern Europe (UK); and
  • seagrass beds in the Western Mediterranean (France).

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models are semi-quantitative representations that help to define the important components of an ecosystem and visualise the relationships between them using a standardised scoring system between -1 and +1 to represent both directional effects (i.e., negative ‘–‘ or positive ‘+’) and influence (i.e., none or unknown ‘0’ to very strong ‘1’). By altering the values of different drivers of the system it is possible to test “what if” scenarios to determine how the system might react under a range of possible changes. These scenarios are useful for determining possible outcomes of decisions or policies, or to predict system-level responses to environmental changes or societal pressures. They can also be used to understand the  trade-offs of different management strategies and help shape perspectives on risk.

So that you are able to use and adapt MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models to your local sites, we have provided the following products:

What are MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models?

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models are interactive conceptual tools based on scientific data and expert knowledge that can help support decision-makers to understand the risks ecosystem changes present to ecosystem services and inform on the best management options. They describe ecosystem structure and connect components to possible drivers of change, while also looking at ecosystem services provision.

Why should MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models be used?

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models help simplify complexity in the marine and coastal ecosystems we studied, allowing practitioners to visualise the effect of changing conditions in the system to better understand whether they need to act to counter those changes.

When should MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models be used?

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models can be used at any time to help inform decision-making regarding management of ecosystem changes. They provide an easy to use and interpret interface that can inform practitioners on the potential consequences of changes identified during monitoring thereby allowing for a considered approach and early action to be taken if required. Because of their ease of use, they can also be applied to a range of “what if” scenarios to explore ecosystem response patterns to change. However, MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models should only be directly used for the ecosystem and place they have been designed for. For use elsewhere they must be adapted to the specific social-ecological context (i.e. identifying the relevant pressures).

How do MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models work?

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models use fuzzy cognitive mapping and expert knowledge to describe and visualise the function of specified marine and coastal ecosystems. They have been constructed using the free online tool MentalModeler.

What is the output of MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models?

The output is a graphical visualisation of predicted positive, negative, and neutral changes to all model components as a result of altering one or multiple driver(s) of change using “what if” scenarios for the examined ecosystem in a specific place.

What do you need to use MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models?

To use MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models directly you will need the model for the specific ecosystem and place of interest, and the guidance we have provided. However, as MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Models have been constructed for the specific ecosystem in the specific place they are not directly transferable to other ecosystems or places. Nonetheless, you can build on, adapt, and validate these models to your specific area of interest. To do so, the following are required:

(1)   MaCoBioS’ Conceptual Model for the specific ecosystem of interest and guidance;

(2)   An account with the free online tool MentalModeler; and

(3)   A pool of experts for your specific ecosystem in a specific place who can provide knowledge on ecosystem function and interaction between components to adapt the model to your needs.

Meet the researchers:

MaCoBioS’ Conceptual models have been produced as a collaborative activity across the MaCoBioS consortium but its development was led by Dr Jean-Philippe Maréchal at Nova Blue Environment, Dr Cindy Cornet and Dr Ewan Trégarot at the University of Portsmouth, and Dr Silvia de Juan at the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC).