MARITIME: Assessing Cumulative Impacts on Marine & Coastal Ecosystems

This tool aims to support the design of Nature-based Solutions by modelling the response of marine and coastal ecosystems to cumulative impacts

Marine and coastal ecosystems face a variety of pressures that are affecting their ecological condition, how they function, and the ecosystem services they provide us. How we can better assess and manage the multiple risks posed by interacting human and natural pressures (including climate change) is one of the major challenges facing the people responsible for marine and coastal management and the communities that rely on marine and coastal life.

To help understand the response of marine and coastal ecosystems to the cumulative impacts caused by climate change and human activities, and to support the design of blue Nature-based Solutions (NBS), MaCoBioS developed a new Machine Learning-Cumulative Impact Assessment (MARITIME) model. MARITIME aims to:
  • understand and map the effects of multiple pressures on a selected marine and coastal ecosystem across multiple scenarios;
  • investigate the potential interactive behaviours among pressures to capture ecosystem response and effects on ecosystem services capacity;
  • identify areas where ecosystems are at risk of disappearance from, or may expand into as a result of, future changes where local blue Nature-based Solutions could be targeted.
To meet these objectives, MARITIME was developed using a Random Forest based model to explore predicted future ecosystem changes with two main components: i) model predictors with proxy indicators for key endogenic (e.g., nutrient input, dissolved oxygen, shipping traffic, coastal development, etc.) and exogenic (e.g., sea surface temperature, salinity, currents, etc.) variables that determine ecosystem presence; and ii) model response as the distribution of the specified ecosystem. Within MaCoBioS we have applied MARITIME to two important ecosystems in our ecoregions, namely seagrass beds (i.e. Posidonia oceanica) in the Mediterranean and kelp forests in Northern Europe, and looked at predicted changes to these ecosystems by 2050 and 2100 under both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios. You can view the results of these applications in our dedicated WebGIS.

MARITIME was developed according to a risk assessment framework informed by existing cumulative risk assessment approaches. You can read more about these in our literature review, ‘Evaluating the combined effect of climate and anthropogenic stressors on marine coastal ecosystems: Insights from a systematic review of cumulative impact assessment approaches’. This work highlights the importance of developing new multidisciplinary approaches, of exploiting the emerging volume of data available, and of involving governing authorities at different levels, from the development of scientific models to the use of their findings.

So that you are able to apply MARITIME to your own area of interest, we have provided the following:

  • Guidance on the datasets you will require, format of input data, assumptions of the model, and instructions for how to run the code. You can access this guidance here.
  • Underpinning Python code and a set of sample data can be accessed through this download. Note that the final MARITIME model code is currently confidential and will be added at a later date following scientific publication. 
  • Should  you require further assistance, please complete our Technical Assistance Request Form with as much information as possible.

What is MARITIME?

MARITIME can act as a decision-support tool that can help inform strategic prioritisation of areas most in need of management to reduce local stressors as well as conversations with stakeholders to identify shared objectives.

Why should MARITIME be used?

MARITIME is a methodological approach that is designed to cope with complex spatial data and inform predictions about likely changes of ecosystem distributions under climate change scenarios. Understanding future changes in an ecosystem will help the development of management strategies whilst meeting stakeholder expectations.

When should MARITIME be used?

Ideally, MARITIME should be done early in strategic prioritisation during problem framing and development of management options. It can also be used to continuously update information as new monitoring data on ecosystem distribution and climate change scenarios become available. 

How does MARITIME work?

MARITIME is a Random Forest based model that integrates key variables that determine ecosystem presence or absence and predicts likely changes over time under different climate change scenarios.

What is the output of MARITIME?

The output is a series of spatial data and visualisations for the examined ecosystem, climate change scenarios, and targeted region. MARITIME can be applied for different ecosystems and climate change scenarios provided spatial data at the desired study scale and appropriate resolution are available.

What do you need to use MARITIME?

To use MARITIME the following are required:

(1)   A clear notion of the key variables that determine the ecosystem’s distribution;

(2)   Spatial data at the relevant scale and resolution for key endogenic and exogenic environmental variables and predictions over time under different climate change scenarios;

(3)   Spatial ecosystem distribution data at the relevant scale for the reference period; and

(4)   MARITIME model code.

MaCoBioS has provided the code and guidance to enable you to use MARITIME. Be aware that the most difficult aspect of applying MARITIME is obtaining good spatial data at a relevant temporal scale and resolution and its interpretation. As with all models that use future predictions, MARITIME should be used as a decision-support tool recognising the uncertainty that comes with predicting the future.

Meet the researchers:

MARITIME has been produced as a collaborative activity across the MaCoBioS consortium but its development was led by Dr Elisa Furlan, Dr Hung Vuong Pham, Christian Simeoni, and Angelica Bianconi  at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC).